3 Implications of Church Decline

I meet with a mentor twice a month. This fall, one of us brought news to each meeting of a church that had closed, merged, etc. These were all types of churches. Some churches had  800-1000 just 10 years ago; others had 400-500 and multiple staff members. Others had been around 100 attenders for 20 years. All of them closed their doors and gave their buildings away this fall. Some of them gave their building to a church plant; others were trying to figure out what to do.

Research shows that 2014 had 3700 church closures.

Every church has to decide how to respond to their unique situation, but what happens when many churches take this option to close? I want to explore 3 implications of church closures.

My focus here is on what ministry in the context of increasing church closures looks like. This is not a prescription for turning around a declining church or for a pastor struggling to turn around a church. This is on ministry in our current context. What do healthy churches do in this context? What do young leaders like me need to consider?

Frequent and widespread church closures are going to mean that a new phenomenon in the USA is going to spring up where there are pockets of “church deserts” or “gospel deserts.” These will be areas of the country where someone has to drive 30 miles or even farther to attend a church.

I got this idea from the term “food deserts’. Food deserts are areas of cities where there is no fresh and affordable food available. These are areas with no supermarkets and only have convenience stores. 

Church deserts are coming as well. These can be in cities, suburbs, and especially rural areas. Imagine a rural area where there is no church at all for 60 miles or more. Cities can have large numbers of churches but there will be areas of cities with no church for the 100,000+ people living in a section of the city.

As more churches close, more areas will have no church and more people will have no access to our life-changing gospel. There will be no one to personally tell and show them the good news of Jesus. If someone heard the gospel, there would be no church nearby for them to attend and be discipled.

Another implication is that churches will not be able to ride out a difficult time, so declines will be faster. In the past, people often stayed at one church because it was near their home (driving a long way to church was not normal) and because they felt a commitment to the church that went beyond a pastor or a style. They were committed and stayed through change. Sometimes that was for the worse and contributed to the decline of the church. But it also meant that the giving and attendance could be stable enough to do a turn-around. 

Now, most churches do not have that kind of commitment. People will not take a risk for their church. If the church needs a lot of change or a pastor transitions, asking them to stay longer and to be patient will not work in a society that moves as fast as ours. If people and money go, then there is no time for a turn-around.

This means that churches will decline faster. If the church doesn’t have the commitment of people and their giving to endure pastoral transitions, internal changes, and declines in attendance, then their decline and death will be faster in the future. Churches won’t take 10 years to close. They will close in 5 years or less.

I heard a pastor lament this just a few weeks ago. He is trying to initiate change in a small church and the one young family in his church came to him and said that it was too hard and too slow to see change so they were moving to another church more like what they want.

That is a phenomenon that has always happened but it is going to happen more. This will increase the speed of church closures.

If churches decline faster because they cannot handle risks and slow downs, then leadership, leadership decisions, and transitions will be critical. When one pastor leaves, the interim pastor and leadership will be very important to continuing the momentum of the church. A church that takes 3 years to find a pastor may create a lot of problems for the new pastor when he is hired because of the likely loss of vision and momentum.  

A poor pastoral hire or promotion can also do great damage when declines can be so rapid. This will make the process of hiring a pastor even more important since many people are not committed enough to a church to wait out a difficult situation.

A pastor’s leadership skills and education will be more important in this kind of world. I would say that theological training and leadership training becomes even more important when there are fewer churches and more and faster declines.